GOLD TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS:
Gold price comes off sharply, trying to break support
A break through support could find gold reeling towards 1400

GOLD PRICE COMES OFF SHARPLY, TESTING LONG-TERM SUPPORT
The price of gold has been all over the place with financial markets getting crushed. There hasn’t been much safe about gold’s safe haven status recently as it too has generally suffered since stocks topped last month. Right now, it is working on breaking confluent support that could prove quite important soon.

The long-term zone from around 1575 down to 1520 dates back to the topping process from 2011/12. It was a stiff area of resistance from September through December, but has turned into support thus far this year. To a lesser degree of importance, is the trend-line running up from June under the November/December period to right now.

Confluent support is being seriously challenged, but can it hold? The thinking is that if gold is to turn bullish again it will need to hold support and then likely spend some time trading sideways, before it can gain the power needed to make another run higher. This makes now an important time for bulls.

On the flip-side, if gold cracks support starting with the trend-line and 1520, a much larger decline back towards 1400 could be in the works. But for now, support is support until broken even if it is barely holding, and may offer good risk/reward longs in the near-term if a rejection can develop. A slice on through with a strong close below support will help pave the way for momentum shorts.

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices continue to drop despite stock market turmoil
Crude oil prices mark time, ignore EIA inventories report
ECB policy announcement eyed, Lagarde presser in focus
Gold prices fell for second consecutive day despite ongoing bloodletting across global financial markets. That it lost ground despite the bellwether S&P 500 stock sinking to the lowest level calls into question its frequent characterization as a “safe haven” asset
The metal probably earned its “safety” pedigree incidentally. It offers no yield, and so tends to look comparatively more attractive when interest rates decline. Since this tends to happen as bond prices rise when haven-seeking capital flows boost demand for government debt, it often gains in risk-off conditions.

When scope for speculation on ever-lower lending rates runs out, this relationship seems to break down regardless of whether market turmoil continues or not. This appears to be precisely what is happening at present: markets have already priced in Fed rates returning to 0, undermining gold’s capacity for gains.

Crude oil prices edged lower amid broader risk-off trade, but found little momentum to venture beyond the narrow consolidation range established since the dramatic plunge at the start of the week. EIA data showing US inventories added a hefty 7.66 million barrels last week passed unnoticed.

ECB STIMULUS BOOST MAY NOT SOOTHE BATTERED FINANCIAL MARKETS
The spotlight now turns to the ECB monetary policy announcement. Markets are primed for a 10bps deposit rate cut to -0.4 percent. Increasing the size of QE asset purchases and introducing another round of TLTRO liquidity injections seems to be widely expected as well.

Big-splash monetary stimulus measures from the Feb, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England amid the coronavirus outbreak have been met with a cool reception. This probably reflects their meeting rather than exceeding investors’ priced in outlook. A similar fate likely faces the ECB’s support package.

With that in mind, comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the press conference following the policy announcement may take on particular importance. She will have the unenviable task of convincing markets the central bank has enough firepower to counter the outbreak’s economic impact.

That is no easy feat considering the ECB has demonstrably launched a comprehensive review of its mandate at the beginning of the year, echoing broader concerns about the efficacy of monetary policy when conventional rate cuts are exhausted. Another selloff may follow if Lagarde fails to mollify markets.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices are edging toward resistance-turned-support at 1611.34, the January 8 high. A daily close below that opens the door for a challenge of the 1535.03-57.10 zone. A further push lower beyond that would mark a break of the uptrend carved out since late April 2019. Closing above the February 24 high at 1689.30 seems like a prerequisite to neutralize selling pressure.

GOLD PRICE FORECAST REMAINS BULLISH WHILE THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK ROILS INVESTOR SENTIMENT
Gold just printed its highest close since the aftermath of the global financial crisis owing to the coronavirus outbreak and rekindled recession risk
Spot gold prices spiked as US Treasury yields plunged following an emergency FOMC interest rate cut that failed to soothe market turmoil
The bounce in bullion has potential to extend toward its 2011 record closing price if the stock market rout endures and sky-high volatility lingers much longer
A massive leap in spot gold price action over the last five trading sessions pushed the precious metal up to another fresh year-to-date high and its strongest close since January 2013. The eye-popping 5.5% rally in gold prices last week, propelled by a stunning drop in Treasury yields and pop in volatility, was the largest weekly gain since October 2011. Gold now looks within arms-reach of its record highs near $1,900 per ounce, but can spot prices make it there?

Investor sentiment and global GDP growth outlook have been battered by the brewing coronavirus pandemic that began in Wuhan, China nearly two months ago. Demand for safe-haven assets has swelled in response, which overwhelmingly caused the recent collapse in sovereign interest rates and jump in gold prices.

Recession risk continues to mount on the back of the novel coronavirus outbreak, or COVID-19, as it delivered a paralyzing shock to the global supply chain and now begins to cripple consumer confidence. The Federal Reserve certainly has taken notice of escalating downside risks faced by the US and global economy due to COVID-19.

This is considering the emergency 50bps rate cut delivered by a unanimous FOMC last Tuesday. It was the first inter-meeting Fed rate cut since August 2008 amid the global financial crisis and collapse of Lehman Brothers.

With the Federal Reserve looking to reassure panic-struck markets, by making financial conditions more accommodative and capitulating to dovish rate cut bets, traders might force the hand of Fed Chair Powell and the FOMC to ease further at the next scheduled interest rate decision on March 18.

The Fed is expected to lower its policy interest rate target by 63-basis points at its next monetary policy update according to Fed funds futures pricing. There are 88-basis points of Fed interest rate cuts priced in by year-end. This trend of ballooning FOMC rate cut bets, if continued, could catapult gold to record highs notched in August 2011.

Another monetary policy powerhouse – the European Central Bank – is expected to provide its own interest rate decision this coming Thursday, March 12 at 12:45 GMT. The ECB Governing Council is expected to leave its key interest rates unchanged according to market consensus.

However, as the coronavirus begins to plague Italy and grip the EU, there has been a collapse in Eurozone inflation expectations and notable rise in recession risk. In turn, this may entice dovish ECB guidance and/or action, which likely stands to help gold prices extend higher than they have already.

GOLD PRICE & VOLATILITY SKYROCKET AS RECESSION RISK RETURNS WITH VENGENCE
Gold Price Chart Gold Forecast Volatility Coronavirus Outbreak
Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

Coronavirus concerns have grown exponentially over recent weeks as the number of confirmed cases inflates – and the economic toll caused by COVID-19 compounds. Correspondingly, stock market uncertainty has begun to snowball on the back of rekindled recession odds. This is broadly reflected by a meteoric rise in the VIX Index since mid-February.

The VIX Index, which is synonymous with ‘fear-gauge’ on Wall Street, just exploded to its highest close since 2011 last week as stocks crash and measures of volatility go haywire. That said, there is generally a strong direct relationship observable between gold and the VIX Index. Spot gold price action will likely stay supported so long as extremely elevated market volatility lingers and risk appetite remains depressed.

On that note, the economic calendar for next week shows that the preliminary US consumer sentiment report for March is due Friday the 13th – perhaps ominously – at 14:00 GMT. The monthly survey will look to shed light on how coronavirus fears are impacting the economic health of consumers. As such, the consumer sentiment report has potential to spark a big reaction in the VIX Index and gold prices if the data deviates materially from market consensus.

The median economist estimate for the headline consumer sentiment index is expected to cross the wires at 95. That would be notable drop from the prior period’s print of 101. It would also be the lowest reading since September last year amid turbulent US-China trade war uncertainty.

GOLD TRADERS UNWIND LONG POSITIONS AMID STOCK MARKET SELLOFF & NEED FOR CASH
Spot Gold Price Chart Gold Forecast
One possible headwind that could pressure the price of gold lower is the risk of a massive liquidity crunch and dash for cash. I pointed this out late last month when the gold breakout took a breather despite a massive stock market selloff, spike in volatility and plunge in yields in light of mounting coronavirus concerns – an atypical move considering the typical correlation of these asset classes.

XAG/USD PRICE OUTLOOK:
Silver may enjoy a boost in the weeks ahead as lingering uncertainty and lower interest rates look to boost the precious metal
In the shorter-term, technical resistance around $17.50 may look to keep gains contained
Still, the precious metal should look to enjoy support nearby if bears pressure price
SILVER PRICE FORECAST: XAG/USD MAY ENJOY BOOST FROM LOWER RATES
Silver may climb higher in the weeks ahead following an emergency rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Alongside the Fed, the Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada have recently acted to combat the adverse effects of the coronavirus. Consequently, interest rates have been reduced and cash has been injected in a number of developed economies which could spur demand for silver and gold as investors look to hedge the threat of inflation.

That being said, the coronavirus itself is not likely to be inflationary because it effectively reduces economic activity and the circulation of money by extension. However, once the threat passes and economies move back to normal levels, the potential explosion in spending given the lower interest rate environment could see inflation take hold. Therefore, investor speculation could see silver tick higher in the weeks ahead while shorter-term price moves are contingent on swings in sentiment.

With that in mind, technical resistance at the $17.50 mark will look to be an early barrier for a continuation higher. Secondary resistance will likely coincide with the 200-day simple moving average around $17.80 before a third hurdle around $18.30 can be tested.

In the event silver prices fall, the metal may enjoy support nearby. First and foremost, the zone around $16.50 to $16.60 may provide assistance – as it has since August. Secondary support may reside near $15.60 but a break beneath $16.50 would likely change my medium-term view on the commodity if the February 28 swing-low was broken.

GOLD PRICE TALKING POINTS
The price of gold bounces back from the weekly low ($1625) as COVID-19 shows no signs of slowing down, and fears surrounding the coronavirus may keep the precious metal afloat as the outbreak dampens the outlook for global growth.

BULLISH GOLD PRICE BEHAVIOR TO PERSIST AS CORONAVIRUS SPREADS
Gold has marked the longest winning streak since June, with the price for bullion trading at its highest level since 2013, and the precious metal may continue to exhibit a bullish behavior as market participants look for an alternative to fiat currencies.

The weakening outlook for global growth is likely to put pressure on major central banks to provide monetary support, and the low interest rate environment may heighten the appeal of gold as authorities like the European Central Bank (ECB) rely on non-standard measures to support Euro area.

It remains to be seen if the ECB will venture into uncharted territory as the Governing Councilremains reluctant to push the main refinance rate, the benchmark for borrowing costs, into negative territory, but the central bank appears to be on track to expands its balance sheet throughout 2020 as President Christine Lagarde and Co. “stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner.”

However, the reliance on unconventional tools may ultimately lead to unintended consequences as the ballooning balance sheet raises the risk for monetary financing, and the price of gold may continue to benefit from the low interest environment as market participants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies.

With that said the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive as the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1447 (38.2% expansion) to $1457 (100% expansion) helped to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation.

OIL PRICE TALKING POINTS
The price of oil struggles to retain the rebound from the monthly low ($49.31) as the coronavirus poses a threat to the global supply chain, but efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may keep crude prices afloat if the group takes additional steps to rebalance the energy market.

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK HINGES ON OPEC MEETING
The price of oil consolidates ahead of the OPEC meeting starting on March 5 as China, one of the largest consumers of crude, struggles to contain COVID-19, with the outbreak dampening the outlook for global growth.

In response, OPEC and its allies may show a greater commitment to the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ by extending the agreement beyond the March 31 deadline as the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) insists that the group should curb production “until the end of 2020.”

However, it remains to be seen if OPEC and its allies will further reduce supply after slashing oil output by an additional 500K b/d in December, and a mere extension of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ may keep oil prices under pressure as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) highlights that “oil demand growth in 2020 is revised down by 0.23 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment.”

With that said, the ongoing commitment to the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ may continue to provide a floor for crude prices, but the OPEC meeting may do little to fuel a larger recovery in the price of oil if the group maintains the quotas from earlier this year.

GOLD PRICE TALKING POINTS
The price of gold climbs to a fresh monthly high ($1681) as the coronavirus drags on the global supply chain, and the precious metal may exhibit a bullish behavior over the remainder of the month as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of a bearish formation and pushes into overbought territory.

GOLD PRICE RALLY PUSHES RSI INTO OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY
Gold marks the longest winning streak since June, with the price for bullion advancing for the fifth consecutive day, and the disruption in the global supply chain may continue to heighten the appeal of the precious metal as it puts pressure on major central banks to implement lower interest rates.

It seems as though the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will take additional steps to combat the coronavirus as officials insist that “China has sufficient policy space to support steady economic growth,” with the central bank going onto say that “the Chinese economy is expected to recover rapidly” after lowering the rate for its medium-term lending facility (MLF) to 3.15% from 3.25% on CNY 200B worth of loans.

It remains to be seen if the PBoC will announce additional measures as the central bank pledges to “implement the financial policies designed to support epidemic prevention and control efforts,” and the weakening outlook for global growth may trigger a response by the Federal Reserve as Chairman Jerome Powell tells US lawmakers that thecoronavirus “could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.”

Image of Federal Reserve interest rate forecast
In turn, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adjust the forward guidance when the central bank updates the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at the next quarterly meeting in March, and a material shift in the interest rate dot-plot may keep gold prices afloat if Fed officials show a greater willingness to implement lower interest rates in 2020.

Image of Fed Fund futures
In fact, Fed Fund futures now show a greater than 80% probability for a rate cut in September, and the FOMC may change its tune over the coming months as “the threat of the coronavirus, in addition to its human toll, had emerged as a new risk to the global growth outlook.”

With that said, the price of gold may continue to exhibit a bullish behavior in 2020 as market participants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies, and the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive as the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1447 (38.2% expansion) to $1457 (100% expansion) helped to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation as the region provided support.

The opening range for 2020 instilled a constructive outlook for the price of gold as the precious metal cleared the 2019 high ($1557), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushing into overbought territory during the same period.
A similar scenario materialized in February, with the price of gold marking the monthly low ($1548) during the first full week, while the RSI broke out of the bearish formation from earlier this year to push back into overbought territory.
Need a close above the $1676 (78.6% expansion) region to open up the Fibonacci overlap around $1733 (78/6% retracement) to $1739 (100% expansion).

TOP SAFE HAVENS FOR 2020 – TALKING POINTS:
We have ended 2019 with a remarkably quiet backdrop, leading to the high-risk exposure complacency so familiar over the past decade
The risk of a normalizing in volatility is high, which in turn suggests risk aversion is a lingering threat for the financial markets
Most will not consider this escape plan until the market is already tumbling, but we discuss what are the best havens for 2020
WHAT IS A SAFE HAVEN AND WHY DO I NEED ONE?
Risk appetite is the principle current in the global financial system. When fear is clouding the eyes of all market participants, the motivation is clear: reduce your risk and safe guard your capital. Alternatively, when greed is directing the mass’s decisions, as has been the case the vast majority of the time this past decade, the driving force is higher rates of return regardless of the risk involved. Naturally, there are many shades of grey in this very wide spectrum; but this compass setting is critical almost regardless of what asset you trade or what style you adhere. Since the capital market recovery post-Great Financial Crisis (starting around March 2009) there has been a mentality such that there is no bad option for taking on risk. However, it is inevitable that the risk build up eventually plateaus and subequently collapses under its own weight – there is only so much reward to be found for the ever expanding risk nowadays.

It is important to have a plan for when things go wrong before the crisis his. Preparation can save an account and even prove profitable for the astute market participant. When it comes to preferred safe havens, there is often an assumption from previous periods of tumult that naturally kick back in when conditions start to erode. Such presumptions can be extremely costly. What stands as a bastion of safety depends on the coditions of the environment. Not all standards are created equal and hold their form through troubled times. That said, given the recharge of benchark US indices to recod highs, the renewed dependency on the world’s largest central banks and the nagging concerns of a global stall in economic activity, it is worth evaluating what safe havens to rely on should conditions start to fracture.

‘NORMAL’ OR MODERATE RISK AVERSION
I will not go into depth on what full risk aversion would look like in my view (a comprehensive drop in risk-leaning assets) or what systemic matters are more likely to trigger such an utter collapse in loosely-held conviciton here, but I will help to establish what represents a better haven given different condtions. Before we consider the full-blown fear options, it is first worth considering what markets suit a measured delegeraging on risk – what some may consider a slow or choppy descent from the S&P 500, Dow. Normally, the US Treasury would be a reserve absolute safety measure given it role as cash-equivalent and the scales of rerseres it fufills globally. However, the US and other government debt measures has been severely skewed with the deluge of stimulus these past years and the threats to do significantly more if provokes. Let’s hope we don’t need to put their prowess to the test, otherwise, we could be in store for a cold dous of reality.

Another over-stated haven that plays more of a role in moderate level risk aversion is the Japanese Yen. While the currency represents the seocnd largest economy in Asia, there is little to genuinely raise the appeal of the benchark. With a negative real rate of return and clear evidence that Japanese officials are increasingly losing sway over their local currency, there is a systemic hurdle to account for when it comes to the Yen. Then again, the currency is the first step in seeking safety. What do traders do when looking to reverse coure from a high-risk exposure to safety? First thing’s first, they take off the ‘long risk’ position. In FX, that is unwinding a carry trade which is traditionally a position founded on a Yen short exposure given decades for which the benchmark has played the function of a ‘funding currency’. What may seem a bid for the Japanese currency can actually be a reversal of a short exposure. So long as the drive isn’t sheer financial implosion, Yen stands to benefit handsomely from risk aversion.

SPECIAL CASE HAVENS
There is a seismic shift occuring in the standard hierarchy of what qualifies as a leading global benchmark. In particular, the US Dollar is seeing its status across the globe diminish as the government pursues a protectionist trade policy that inevitably curbs the use of the haven. Where does capital reaosonable redirect when the diversion in the global river is away from the world’s most liquid currency? The second most liquid currency. The Euro holds the second place of global currencies by a wide margin which afford certain unquestionable appeal when fear is arising from the world’s typical center for stability. Consider the Euro’s role rather than its unique issues when fear is founded in a reshuffling of the global order.

Dollar, Gold, Yen: What are the Top Safe Havens of 2020?
In practical terms, the Swiss Franc holds a high correlation to the Euro. This is owing to a Swiss National Bank monetary policy that is explicitly targeted to keeping pace with a deeper pocketed counterpart in the ECB. This leads to very unflattering distortions in the currency’s activity, but that does not cloud some of its more fundamental properties. The Franc is one of the older currencies among the majors, and a political neutrality from the currency presents a very unique appeal for global financiers that may be concerned with fallout from more provocative policy efforts across the globe.

‘IN THE EVENT OF AN EMERGENCY’ HAVENS
Nuance is a perfectly valid consideration in markets where rational minds can still evaluate the risk-reward circumstances at play. However, where unchecked fear starts to infect the investing mass’s calculus, there is a rudimentary demand for absolute liquidity. When market depth is the principle qualifier, there is arguably no other measure more ubiquitious than the US Dollar. The currency accounts for nearly two thirds of all transactions globally. It is difficult to escape it pull even if you tried. Where markets are concerned with the absolute stability of the instrument in which they are sheltering in place, there really is no substitute for the Greenback. It is a hedge to panic, but such a state is not exactly a far-fetched possiblity.

Extend that financial stability concern to a general unease over the foundations of traditional fiat assets like the Dollar, Euro, Yen and Pound – not difficult to imagine given protectionist policies and extreme monetary policy – and there are very few flights to safety left. I maintan that gold is one of the most appropriate havens for the kind of conditions that we are facing in the global financial system at present: risk aversion that is not showing on the surface and the slow erosion of influence from the fravorite havens in which to squat. Whether you intend to trade/invest in it or not, you should monitor gold as a general barometer on the markets.

GOLD AND CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices rose again as coronavirus worries keep haven assets bid
The Federal Reserve acknowledged the outbreak as an economic threat
Crude oil prices were down, hit by another surprise US stock build
Gold prices continued higher on Thursday with the spread of coronavirus still capping risk appetite in the Asia Pacific region and across the world.

The US Federal Reserve left its monetary policy settings on hold on Wednesday but acknowledged the disease as a new risk. Anything likely to deter the world’s central banks from raising interest rates is likely to support gold, an asset which yields nothing and so generally does better in low rate environments. However, the US Dollar remains close to two-month highs against its major traded rivals, which may limit gold’s attraction to non-Dollar buyers.

The World Health Organization is due to reconvene later Thursday to decide whether the disease constitutes a global emergency. It’s previous decision not to so categorize it gave markets some fleeting relief earlier this week.

The broad market will look to official us growth data, coming up later, and the Bank of England’s January monetary policy decision. That central bank is expected to keep borrowing costs on hold but there has been plenty of chatter in the market about the possibility of a cut and the markets may well wait for the fact.

CRUDE OIL SLIPS AGAIN ON DEMAND WORRIES, US STOCK BUILD
Crude oil prices slipped as the virus-related death toll in China climbed to 170 and more airlines cancelled flights into major Chinese cities. Reduced travel was one of the major energy-market hits dealt by 2003’s outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and market memories are long.

News of another weekly rise in US stocks also weighed on the market in Asian hours.

According to the Energy Information Administration, crude stocks rose by 3.5 million barrels in the week to January 4, smashing forecasts of a 428,000 barrel rise. Gasoline inventory hit record highs, increasing for a twelfth week straight.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Prices remain close to the highs seen earlier this month but, despite the apparently supportive backdrop, there seems little appetite to regain them just yet.

Recent daily ranges have been quite small, which might suggest that the market is still suffering from a degree of indecision at these levels. However, prices remain above their previous trading range and, if they can continue to do so into this week and month’s end it could well be a bullish sign.

There are clues that a new higher range could be building, but they are hardly conclusive yet. If the market can stay above $1.563.31/ounce that could become a tentative range base, with this week’s high of $1589.27 acting as a putative top.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
US crude oil prices are effectively back to the lows of 2019, but for the moment at least have bounced there.

US Crude Oil Prices, Daily Chart
The market now seems to be stuck within a broad band which last bounced it on an intraday basis back in October last year. The range base has survived two tests this week, but it looks likely to face more. Should it give way there’ll be little between the market and the psychologically crucial $50 mark.

GOLD – XAU/USD FORECAST
XAU/USD price action and technical analysis

GOLD PRICE – INDECISIVE TRADERS
Last week, the price declined to $1,535- its lowest level in over a week. On Friday, Gold closed the weekly candlestick with another Doji pattern reflecting that market’s indecision is still on. This week, the precious metal traded in a trendless move as every candlestick reversed the effect of the one before.

Alongside that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped below 70 then remained flat highlighting a stalled uptrend momentum

Gold daily chart price 23-01-20 Zoomed in
Looking at the daily chart, we notice on Jan 14 the price U-turned and pushed higher signalling that Gold bulls were not done yet. This led the market to push to a higher trading $1,555 – $1,625.

Therefore, the price could be on its way for a test of the high end of the zone. Nevertheless, the weekly resistance levels underscored on the chart (zoomed in) would be worth monitoring as some traders may join/exit the market around these points.

A close below the low end of the zone reflects bull’s hesitation. This may lead some of them to cut back and reverse the market’s direction towards $1,526. Further close below this level opens the door for XAU/USD bears to take charge and press towards $1,453. In that scenario, the weekly support levels and area marked on the chart should be considered

From the four-hour chart, we noticed that on Jan 21 Gold rallied to $1,568 – its highest level in two weeks. Currently, the yellow metal could be on its way for a test of the uptrend line originated form the Jan 13 low at $1,535. Any violation of this trend line could be considered as a bearish signal.

A break below $1,546 could send XAU/USD towards $1,526. That said, the Jan 13 low at 1.535 should be monitored closely. On the other hand, a break above $1,561 may cause a rally towards $1,575. Yet, the aforementioned Jan 21 high should be kept in focus.