周二（5月12日）亚市盘中，美元指数维持升势，现报100.40附近，分析师指出，由于避险情绪提振市场对避险资产的需求，美元兑现了G10货币走高。走强影响，现货黄金继续承压于1700美元/盎司关闭口下方。北京时间周二晚间，美国将公布逐步数据，预计将引发市场行情。逐步，包括美联储理事夸张里面的四位美联储官员将发表演讲。全球疫情方面，根据最新数据统计，全球新冠肺炎逐渐确诊病例数已经超过425万例；而美国累计确诊病例则突破了138万例，累积死亡病例超过8.1万例。

避险买盘刺激美元增长美国日益数据来袭

美元受益于对第二波新冠状病毒感染的纠正引发的避险买盘。在经济和政治局势时期，美元被认为是一种安全的价值储存手段。

略高于美元兑一篮子货币的美元指数周一增长0.49％，收报100.23，盘中最高触及100.30。周二亚市盘中，美元指数扩大升势至100.40附近。

德国报告称，在采取放松封锁的初步措施后，新的感染病例正在加速增加。韩国新增病例数也回升至一个月高位。

Action Economics的分析师预估：“市场对经济过快重启导致新一波感染的加剧，应该会继续让投资者保持谨慎。”

西联业务解决方案高级市场分析师Joe Manimbo表示：“上周公布的美国就业报告显示，4月美国就业人数减少了2000多万人，创历史记录，失业率达到近15％，为大萧条以来的最高水平。在这种情况下，保持乐观被证明是一项艰巨的巨任务。对未来失业率可能超过20％的预期，抑制了下半年强劲复苏的希望，支撑了美元。”

Manimbo表示，本周美元走势将受美联储主席鲍威尔此次周三发表的讲话，以及走势，初请失业金和零售销售等数据影响。

北京时间周二20:30，美国将公布4月数据。媒体调查显示，美国4月未季调消费者物价指数（CPI）年率料上升0.4％，前增加上升1.5％；美国4月未季调核心CPI年率料增长1.7％，前增长2.1％。

道明证券（TD Securities）大宗商品策略师Ryan McKay说：“人们对经济数据下行的预期仍然相当坚定。”

根据美联储的日程安排，美联储主席鲍威尔将在当地时间5月13日早上9点（北京时间5月13日晚上9点）就经济问题发表讲话。

分析师指出，考虑到近期市场对于美联储实施负利率的预期，鲍威尔本周讲话至关重要。

黄金周一上演“高台跳水”后市能否反弹？

周二亚市盘中，现货黄金继续承压，目前报1696美元/汇率附近。因美元走强，黄金价格周一自日内高点明显回落。

现货黄金周一盘中最高上涨至1712.30美元/突破，最低下探1690.95美元/突破，收于1695.82美元/下跌，下跌5.36美元或0.32％。

道明证券（TD Securities）大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali表示：“我们看到美元的短期需求非常强劲。”他补充称，黄金还被夹在巨大的货币前景和疲软经济数据带来的通缩压力之内间，前者应该会支撑金价表现。

知名财经网站Economies.com撰文称，金价周一走低并逐步接近测试关键支撑1678.45美元/汇率。只要金价维持在这一水平上方，其看涨观点在未来仍然有效。

Economies.com提醒称，金价需要突破1724.00美元/英镑，以帮助金价升向下一主要看涨目标1747.43美元/汇率。一旦突破1747.43美元/英镑，金价下一目标将看向向1785.00美元/水平。

一些市场人士表示，黄金的长期趋势将是积极的，因黄金往往受益于逐步的广泛刺激措施，因其被普遍认为是对冲利率和货币贬值的工具。

美国上周公布的一系列疲弱的经济数据凸显了疫情的影响，并提升了美联储出台进一步刺激措施的预期。

Pepperstone研究主管克里斯·韦斯顿（Chris Weston）表示，无论是面对全球财政赤字，货币贬值，负利率债券还是利率等因素，黄金都有上涨的理由，接下去要关注的关键水平是1738美元/英镑。

韦斯顿文章：“自4月中旬以来黄金市场就一直在1738至1678美元/盎司的区域内，其面对的是一个非常有趣的阶段，如果金价能有效突破1738水平，那么投资者的兴趣会变为现实升温，发展中国家的看涨趋势将会继续下去。”

Oanda高级市场分析师杰弗里·哈雷（Jeffrey Halley）表示，金价仍在1650至1750美元/盎司的区域内。“在金价测试这两个水平之前，投资者的兴趣不会太明确。”

针对本周走势，据FX168上周六公布的每周金融市场调查显示，分析师和交易员对黄金本周的前景看多。

在接受每周金融市场调查的交易员及分析师中，看多黄金占比达到42.86％，看空与盘整的比例代替28.57％。

此外，据上周五知名黄金资讯网站Kitco发布的调查显示，机构和散户据偏向看涨黄金后市，11位华尔街专业人士中有6位（55％）表示他们看好未来一周的前景。人士（27％）预计金价将变动，两名专业人士（18％）持中立态度。

实际上，针对普通投资者的一项在线投票显示，共有750人参与投票。共有502位投资者（67％）预计本周金价将增长。另有139人（19％）持仓预期，109人（15％）持中性看法。

道明证券（TD Securities）大宗商品策略师Ryan McKay说，可能在明年初实施的负利率政策将帮助金价走出矛盾，本周也需要保持关注。

全球疫情最新动态：全球新冠病毒感染人数超425万例美国逐步确诊破138万例

根据最新数据统计，全球新冠肺炎累计确诊病例数已经超过425万例。目前，全球已经有10个国家累计确诊人数超过10万，其中，美国逐步确诊病例已经突破138万例。

Worldometers世界实时统计数据显示，截至北京时间5月12日9时24分，全球新冠肺炎累计确诊病例突破425万例，达到4254193例，累积死亡病例超过28.7万例，达到287257例。美国新冠肺炎恶化确诊病例全球最多，超过138万例，达到1385834例，累积死亡病例超过8.1万例，达到81795例。

当地时间5月11日下午，美国总统任命在记者会上表示，白宫的疫情已经得到控制。而是还表示，要求白宫人员戴口罩。副总统彭斯的新闻秘书都被检测出感染新冠病毒。

11日早些时候，白宫要求所有在白宫西翼办公区的工作人员佩戴口罩，要求办公人员严格保持社交距离，遵守访客限制。

截至11日证实，副总统彭斯当天的病毒检测结果为阴性，并且是连续两天为阴性。但彭斯一直出席该记者会。

初步指出，美国的新冠检测能力在不断增强，最终本周末美国新冠检测人数预计将超过千万。

据CNN 5月10日报道，白宫一名高级官员表示，在美国副总统彭斯的新闻秘书凯蒂·米勒的新冠状病毒检测呈阳性后，白宫内部进行了密切接触者追踪。米勒接触过的所有人的检测结果先前一致，包括她的丈夫，美国总统的高级顾问斯蒂芬·米勒。

在几名接近美国总统任命和他的核心圈子的工作人员感染新冠状病毒后，这引发了有人该病毒可能在白宫最核心圈子内部传播的替代。

白宫正在迅速增加对先前身边的人的检测，垂直对准的女儿伊万卡·重组的私人助理被检测出冠状病毒阳性。

当地时间4月11日，美国总统批准批准俄明州为新冠疫情“重大灾难状态”。这意味着美国所有50个州，首都华盛顿特区以及美属维尔京群岛，北马里亚纳群岛，关岛和波多黎各4个海外领地都进入“重大灾难状态”，这是美国历史上的首次。

目前全球有10个国家的确诊病例超过10万例，伊朗是最新一个超过10万的国家。Worldometers世界实时统计数据显示，截至北京时间5月12日9时24分，西班牙新冠肺炎逐渐确诊病例达268143例，英国渐进确诊223060例，俄罗斯累计确诊221344例，意大利累计确诊219814例，法国逐步确诊177423例，德国逐步确诊172576例，巴西逐步确诊168331例，土耳其逐步确诊139771例，伊朗逐步确诊109286例，印度逐步确诊70768例，加拿大逐步确诊69981例，秘鲁逐步确诊68822例，比利时逐步确诊53449例。

随着多国近期逐步放松新冠状病毒情管控措施，世界卫生组织（WHO）5月11日前后各国保持对病毒的警惕，闸在出现病例回升时迅速采取控制措施。世卫组织总干事谭德塞11日在视频新闻发布会上说，相关检测表明，只有少数人体内携带的新冠状病毒抗体，这意味着大多数人仍易感染该病毒。方法。

GOLD AND CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices were lower as the prospect of economic reopening tempted investors into riskier assets
However weak economic data are sure to endure, helping to underpin the market
Crude oil prices rose as supply cuts kick in
Gold prices were lower on Tuesday morning in Asia, with the prospect of some tentative emergence from coronavirus lockdowns boosting appetite for riskier assets.

Some US states are starting to open up their economies, with countries such as Italy and Finland also allowing more activity after many shuttered weeks.

Still, the underlying haven bid for gold is likely to remain in place given expectations that the virus’ effects have already been severe enough to ensure a global recession. The week’s main economic event will be Friday’s release of official US labor market statistics. These are expected to be the weakest since 1939, with millions more jobs lost.

The apparent ratcheting-up of trade tensions between China and the United States will also keep investors cautious.
Production cuts will kick in this month from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, the so-called ‘OPEC Plus’ group, with major companies also taking steps to rein in their output.

Clearly demand will remain subdued until something like economic normality is restored, and the current huge supply glut has to work its way through to end users. However, some analysts have increased their price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs reportedly upping its 2021 US crude oil call to $55.63/barrel from $52.50.

That underlying haven bid is clearly evident on the daily chart, with prices still confined to a narrow, elevated range even though they’ve broken below their previously dominant downtrend.

Support remains in place at the range’s lower bound $1674.30/ounce, with the psychological $1600 mark lurking below that. The market is clearly in no hurry to test these support levels, however, probably fearful that buyers would emerge soon enough if it did. By the same token however the ground above $1700 remains beyond the bulls. A durable range break will probably be instructive, but there seems little sign of one yet.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices have powered back above the $20/barrel mark and continue to respect the nascent uptrend in place since the lows of April. That now offers support at $17.52, a point now some way below the market given current daily ranges. The market has perhaps tellingly now clawed back all of the very sharp falls seen on April 21. It did so by topping $21.76 and the bulls may be tempted to try for resistance at $30 for as long as that point holds.

GOLD PRICE TALKING POINTS
The price of gold consolidates following the failed attempt to test the November 2012 high ($1754), but the Federal Reserve meeting may heighten the appeal of the precious metal if the central bank shows a greater willingness to deploy more unconventional tools over the coming months.

GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK HINGES ON FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION
The price of gold carves a fresh series of lower highs and lows ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision as the Great Lockdown appears to have passed its peak.

The price of gold may face a larger pullback going in May as governments across Australia unveil plans to gradually roll back the lockdown laws, with the US taking a similar approach as the Trump administration outlines a three-phased approach to reopen the economy.

President Donald Trump tweets “Many States moving to SAFELY & QUICKLY reopen” as the ‘stay at home’ order in Texas is set to expire on Thursday, and the efforts to gradually restart the advanced economies may drag on the price of gold as it curbs speculation for additional monetary support.

The unprecedented response by fiscal authorities may encourage the FOMC to alter the forward guidance for monetary policy, and Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may adopt a less dovish tone as the central bank expands the scope of the Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF), with the program to now offer “up to $500 billion in lending to states and municipalities.”

Nevertheless, the FOMC may keep the door open to implement more non-standard measures as the “timing of the resumption of growth in the U.S. economy depended on the containment measures put in place,” and the central bank may continue to utilize its balance sheet as the rate cuts from earlier this year pushed “the target range to its effective lower bound (ELB).”

Image of Federal Reserve balance sheet
Source: Federal Reserve

It remains to be seen if the dovish forward guidance will help to restore investor confidence as the FOMC relies on its unconventional tools to combat the economic shock from COVID-19, and the low interest rate environment along with the Fed’s ballooning balance sheet may continue to act as a backstop for goldas marketparticipants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies.

However, the price of bullion may continue to consolidate over the remainder of the month amid the string of failed attempt to test the November 2012 high ($1754), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as a bearish formation takes shape.

The opening range for 2020 instilled a constructive outlook for the price of gold as the precious metal cleared the 2019 high ($1557), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushing into overbought territory during the same period.
A similar scenario materialized in February, with the price of gold marking the monthly low ($1548) during the first full week, while the RSI broke out of the bearish formation from earlier this year to push back into overbought territory.
However, the monthly opening range for March as less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the decline from the monthly high ($1704) leading to a break of the January low ($1517).
Nevertheless, the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) instilled a constructive outlook for bullion especially as the RSI reversed course ahead of oversold territory and broke out of the bearish formation carried over from the previous month.
The break/close above $1710 (100% expansion) pushed the price of gold to a fresh yearly high ($1748), but the precious metal continues to track the range from earlier this month amid the lack of momentum to test the November 2012 high ($1754).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights a similar dynamic as a bearish formation takes shape following the failed attempts to push into overbought territory.
In turn, gold may continue to consolidate over the remainder of the month amid the string of failed attempt to close above the Fibonacci overlap around $1733 (78.6% retracement) to $1739 (100% expansion), with the lack of momentum to hold above the $1710 (100% expansion) region bringing the $1676 (78.6% expansion) area on the radar as the price for bullion carves a fresh series of lower highs and lows.
Next area of interest comes in around $1655 (78.6% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around $1627 (61.8% expansion) to $1635 (78.6% retracement).

GOLD PRICE TALKING POINTS
The price of gold appears to be stuck in a narrow range following the string of failed attempt to test the November 2012 high ($1754), and the precious metal may consolidate ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on April 29 as it snaps the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week.

GOLD PRICE FAILS TO TEST NOVEMBER 2012 HIGH AHEAD OF FOMC MEETING
The price of gold holds the monthly range as the Great Lockdown appears to have past its peak, and plans to gradually restart the advanced economies may generate a near-term correction in bullion as Italy looks to ease restrictions starting on May 4.

The US may soon follow as the Trump administration outlines a three-phased approach to reopen the economy, and the unprecedented response by fiscal authorities may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to carry out its current policy as US lawmakers pass a $484B stimulus program to assist small businesses and hospitals through the pandemic.

In turn, the FOMC may revert to a wait-and-see approach as “the timing of the resumption of growth in the U.S. economy depended on the containment measures put in place,” but the central bank may keep the door open to implement more non-standard measures as officials saw “U.S. economic activity as likely to decline in the coming quarter and viewed downside risks to the economic outlook as having increased significantly.”

It remains to be seen if the dovish forward guidance will help to restore investor confidence as the FOMC pledges to “use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy,” but the economic shock from COVID-19 may be felt throughout 2020 if the behaviors sparked by the lockdown laws become a new norm.

As a result, slowdown in global growth may lead to more historical events as major central banks push monetary policy into uncharted territory, and the low interest rate environment may continue to act as a backstop for goldas marketparticipants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies.

With that said, the flight to safety may keep gold prices afloat, and the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive as the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) helped to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation, with a similar scenario arising in March.

However, the price of bullion may consolidate over the remainder of the month amid the string of failed attempt to test the November 2012 high ($1754), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as a bearish formation takes shape.

The opening range for 2020 instilled a constructive outlook for the price of gold as the precious metal cleared the 2019 high ($1557), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushing into overbought territory during the same period.
A similar scenario materialized in February, with the price of gold marking the monthly low ($1548) during the first full week, while the RSI broke out of the bearish formation from earlier this year to push back into overbought territory.
However, the monthly opening range for March as less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the decline from the monthly high ($1704) leading to a break of the January low ($1517).
Nevertheless, the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) instilled a constructive outlook for bullion especially as the RSI reversed course ahead of oversold territory and broke out of the bearish formation carried over from the previous month.
The break/close above $1710 (100% expansion) pushed the price of gold to a fresh yearly high ($1748), but the precious metal continues to track the range from earlier this month amid the lack of momentum to test the November 2012 high ($1754).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights a similar dynamic as a bearish formation takes shape following the failed attempts to push into overbought territory.
In turn, the price of gold may consolidate over the remainder of the month amid the string of failed attempt to close above the Fibonacci overlap around $1733 (78.6% retracement) to $1739 (100% expansion), with a move below the $1710 (100% expansion) region bringing the $1676 (78.6% expansion) area on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around $1655 (78.6% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around $1627 (61.8% expansion) to $1635 (78.6% retracement).

GOLD PRICES, INTEREST RATES, 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS, COVID-19 – TALKING POINTS:
The coronavirus broke upon a world where monetary policy was already extremely loose
Fiscal authorities sensing danger have stepped in with a will
But this remains uncharted monetary territory
In coronavirus the global economy has been hamstrung by a crisis which, in monetary terms, had not really recovered from the previous one.

The 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) wreckage is still clearly visible across the world in the often record low interest rates which were already in place before the virus struck. Moral hazard is never far away from financial markets who can now see the cost of keeping rates low to fight the last crisis: there’s too little ammunition left to fight the next one.

In more usual times the authorities have room to make swingeing cuts to borrowing costs in an effort to stimulate their economies. The GFC saw US rates come down from more than 5% to effectively zero, having risen back to that point from around 2% in 2004. The global economy sailed in to the coronavirus with the upper bound of the Fed Funds target rate range at a princely 1.75%, already very low by historical standards.

And the Fed has at least managed to raise interest rates from their financial crisis lows. They remained negative in Japan, and at record lows almost everywhere else, even as the virus struck.

Accorded almost magic properties in the days of Alan Greenspan, the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy had come to be doubted even by those who practice it, in the months before coronavirus hit.

‘NORMAL’ INTEREST RATE LEVELS HAD ALREADY COLLAPSED
Interest rate suppression had become a necessity in order to stop businesses and households who’d been incentivized by low rates to borrow to the hilt from going under. Sure enough they were delivered, but they left very little room for crisis fighting. As we now see. Happily the world’s fiscal authorities have seen this problem for what it is, and stepped into the monetary policy gap with huge stimulus programs of their own, most notably the US’ two-trillion-dollar whopper.

But this too comes with considerable hazard, especially if the coronavirus forces the global economy into deep freeze for a prolonged periods. National balance sheets were already groaning, the costs of economic rescue will inevitably put strained credit ratings under further duress.

What this means for trading markets is likely very simple. The bid for so-called haven assets is likely to be stronger than it was, and probably far more lasting. Think gold, the Swiss Franc, the US Dollar and the bonds of ever-rarer, rock-solid national borrowers. Riskier plays, by contrast, may well see more skittish demand profiles.

To some extent we are merely seeing a trend long in place turbocharged by the coronavirus.

Gold prices for example have been permanently at levels which would be regarded as historically quite high ever since the end of the financial crisis in 2009.

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GOLD AND CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices slid as some Asian stock markets rose with oil prices
However the prospect of more US stimulus has precious metal underpinned
Crude oil markets may see more production cuts, but the current glut has seen storage fill up
Gold prices eased in Thursday’s Asia Pacific trade. Some investors clearly booked profits on the last two sessions’ gains.

However, despite a modest pickup in risk appetite and a bounce in crude oil prices, gold remained above $1700/ounce. The US House of Representatives is expected to clear a fourth coronavirus economic countermeasure on Thursday, raising the overall federal fiscal response to nearly $3 trillion.

This sort of hugely expanded deficit spending is likely to underpin gold, as has miserable Purchasing Managers Index figures out of both Australia and Japan.

There are more PMI releases coming up from Europe and the US later Thursday, and it will be fascinating to see whether the current risk appetite survival survives what’s expected to be more virus-related gloom.

Crude oil prices meanwhile extended gains amid clear signs that producers are cutting back production heavily in the face of coronavirus’ awful toll on demand.

Oklahoma’s regulators have said well owners can now shutter operations without losing leases, while loadings of Russian ‘Urals grade’ oil in the Baltic are reportedly set to be sharply lower this month, suggesting that the country is complying with the large production cuts agreed earlier this month by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, the so-called ‘OPEC Plus’ group.

Still, concerns remain over storage capacity for a glut of crude oil with no clear end users. US crude oil stockpiles reached 518.6 million barrels in the week to April 17 according to official data. That’s not far from 2017’s record of 535 million.

Gold prices remain below their previously dominant daily chart uptrend channel, having broken below it on April 17. However, there’s been very little appetite to sell the metal down to any great extent, and narrow range-trading has been the order of the days since.

Near-term support comes in at $1673.90/ounce, April 19’s closing low. At the top of the range resistance at $1724.40 could soon face another test although there doesn’t seem any urgency to try and take it out.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
US Crude Oil Prices, Daily Chart
The last two days’ gains still leaves US crude prices under the influence of the downtrend in place since February 19. It will stay that way unless the bulls can force prices back above $24.89/barrel and there’s certainly no sign that they’ve that sort of resolve yet.

A rise above April 21’s opening price of $21.60 might be an indication that such resolve was growing, especially if the market holds thereabouts. If it can’t, psychological support in the $10 region may be back in focus, but if the fundamental news continues to center on output reductions then gains could be more likely.

GOLD PRICE TALKING POINTS
Gold continues to give back the advance from earlier this month as US lawmakers unveil another fiscal stimulus program to combat the economic shock from COVID-19, and the price for bullion may stage a larger pullback as it extends the series of lower highs and lows carried over from the previous week.

GOLD PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH AMID CORRECTION FROM 2020 HIGH
The price of gold remains under pressure as the US Senate passes a $484B stimulus program to assist small businesses and hospitals through the pandemic, and the unprecedented efforts taken by fiscal as well as monetary authorities may continue to sap the appeal of bullion as it helps to restore investor confidence.

Looking ahead, plans to gradually roll back the lockdown laws across the advanced economies is likely to influence influence trader sentiment as the Trump administration outlines a three-phased approach to reopen the US, and hopes for a V-shaped recovery may fuel a larger correction in gold as major central banks push monetary policy into uncharted territory.

It remains to be seen if the slew of unconventional measures taken by major central banks will jumpstart the global economy as New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent voting-member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), warns of a protracted recovery in the US, and the economic shock from COVID-19 may be felt throughout 2020 if the behaviors sparked by the lockdown laws become a new norm.

At the same time, the collapse in crude oil futures suggest more historical events will occur this year amid the slowdown in global growth, and the low interest rate environment may continue to act as a backstop for goldas marketparticipants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies.

With that said, the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive as the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) helped to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation, with a similar scenario arising in March as the price of gold reversed course from the monthly low ($1451).

However, the price of bullion may continue to pullback from the yearly high ($1748) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) establishes a negative slope following the failed attempt to push into overbought territory.

The opening range for 2020 instilled a constructive outlook for the price of gold as the precious metal cleared the 2019 high ($1557), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushing into overbought territory during the same period.
A similar scenario materialized in February, with the price of gold marking the monthly low ($1548) during the first full week, while the RSI broke out of the bearish formation from earlier this year to push back into overbought territory.
However, the monthly opening range for March as less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the decline from the monthly high ($1704) leading to a break of the January low ($1517).
Nevertheless, the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) instilled a constructive outlook for bullion especially as the RSI reversed course ahead of oversold territory and broke out of the bearish formation carried over from the previous month.
The break/close above $1710 (100% expansion) pushed the price of gold to a fresh yearly high ($1748), but the precious metal has pared the advance from earlier this month following the failed run at the November 2012 high ($1754).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights similar dynamic as the oscillator establishes a negative slope following the failed attempt to push into overbought territory.
The string of failed attempt to close above the Fibonacci overlap around $1733 (78.6% retracement) to $1739 (100% expansion) has pushed the price of gold below the $1676 (78.6% expansion) region, with a break/close below $1655 (78.6% expansion) opening up the Fibonacci overlap around $1627 (61.8% expansion) to $1635 (78.6% retracement).

GOLD AND CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices gave back some of Monday’s gains
However they remain close to this year’s highs
Oil prices remain heavily weighed down as investors eye evaporating demand
Gold prices were lower in Tuesday’s Asia Pacific session, retreating a little from the strong gains made on Monday.

Risk appetite has been hit hard by US crude oil prices’ collapse, with most Asian stock markets lower through the session. That energy prices should be so weak despite heavy output cuts agreed this month only serves to underline the grievous economic hit expected from the coronavirus’ global spread.

All this might have been expected to support havens such as gold a little more but the stronger US Dollar suggests that it’s in the greenback, rather than in the metal, that fearful investors. The rest of the day’s economic calendar is thinly populated which means the market is likely to be left to its current, gloomy themes.

Get My Guide
Crude oil prices remain close to the $20 mark despite the collapse of a futures contract into negative territory for the first time in history in the previous session. That contract expires on Tuesday but, with space to store oil now getting scarce thanks to a glut of supply meeting plummeting demand, it closed Monday at minus $37.63/barrel.

Clearly this does not mean that users can expect to be paid for taking oil away in any broader sense, but the underlying picture of demand and global growth is certainly worrying, as the coronavirus-linked lockdowns which underlie it will remain in place for an indefinite period.

CHANGE IN LONGS SHORTS OI
DAILY 42% 45% 43%
WEEKLY 43% 51% 45%
What does it mean for price action?

Gold prices’ monthly chart shows what a period of strength April has been overall. Gains seen this month have cemented the rise above an uptrend channel previously dominant since November 2015 and put the peaks of October 2012 within bulls’ reach. Before this month that upside break had seemed tentative, with a couple of very narrow open-close ranges preceding it suggesting a degree of uncertainty.

April’s rise has lifted the market clear of those levels and, if it can consolidate above them, a test of those 2012 highs looks likely. That said risk appetite is volatile and gold can’t be relied on to make strong gains even when it wanes.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude Oil Prices, Daily Chart
Prices continue to slide toward the psychological $20/barrel support area having put in a string of falls since April 14. Whether that considerable barrier can hold into the weekly and, more importantly, the monthly close could be very significant. It looks as thought he bears remain firmly in control of this market with the overarching daily chart downtrend still unchallenged. A sustained return back above $25 might change things but doesn’t look especially likely without some major good news out of left field.

GOLD PRICE TALKING POINTS
Gold continues to pull back from the yearly high ($1748) even though the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth to contract 3.0% in 2020, and the price for bullion may face a larger correction as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.

GOLD PRICE CARVES LOWER HIGHS AND LOWS AMID PLANS TO REOPEN US ECONOMY
The price of gold fails to test the November 2012 high ($1754)as the Trump administration outlines a three-phased approach to reopen the US economy, and the bullish momentum may continue to abate over the coming days as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reverses course ahead of overbought territory.

Hopes of a V-shaped recovery appear to be dampening the appeal of gold as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard insists that “it is entirely possible and feasible we can get past the crisis mostly in the second quarter,” and a growing number of Federal Reserve officials may adopt an improved outlook as the central bank takes unprecedented steps to combat the economic shock from COVID-19.

However, New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent voting-member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), warns of a protracted recovery as “it’s going to take longer to get us back to where we want to be.” Mr. Williams went onto say that “I don’t see the economy being back to full strength by the end of the year”during an interview with CNBC, and the weakening outlook for growth may force the FOMC to retain a dovish forward guidance at its next interest rate decision on April 29 as the IMF sees the US economy contracting 5.9% in 2020.

It remains to be seen if the FOMC will continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the committee “remainscommitted to using its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses to counter the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic,” but the unprecedented response may ultimately lead to unintended consequences as the Fed relies on its balance sheet to cushion the US economy.

With that said, the low interest rate environment may continue to act as a backstop for goldas marketparticipants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies, and the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive as the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) helped to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation, with a similar scenario arising in March as the price of gold reversed course from the monthly low ($1451).

However, the price of bullion may continue to pullback from the yearly high ($1748) as it initiates a series of lower highs and lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reverses course ahead of overbought territory.

The opening range for 2020 instilled a constructive outlook for the price of gold as the precious metal cleared the 2019 high ($1557), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushing into overbought territory during the same period.
A similar scenario materialized in February, with the price of gold marking the monthly low ($1548) during the first full week, while the RSI broke out of the bearish formation from earlier this year to push back into overbought territory.
However, the monthly opening range for March as less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the decline from the monthly high ($1704) leading to a break of the January low ($1517).
Nevertheless, the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) instilled a constructive outlook for bullion especially as the RSI reversed course ahead of oversold territory and broke out of the bearish formation carried over from the previous month.
The break/close above $1710 (100% expansion) pushed the price of gold to a fresh yearly high ($1748), but the precious metal struggles to retain the advance from earlier this month following the failed the November 2012 high ($1754).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights similar dynamic as the oscillator fails to push above 70 and flops ahead of overbought territory.
The string of failed attempt to close above the Fibonacci overlap around $1733 (78.6% retracement) to $1739 (100% expansion) has pushed the price of gold back towards the $1676 (78.6% expansion) region, with the next area of interest coming in around $1655 (78.6% expansion).

GOLD PRICES, INTEREST RATES, 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS, COVID-19 – TALKING POINTS:
The coronavirus broke upon a world where monetary policy was already extremely loose
Fiscal authorities sensing danger have stepped in with a will
But this remains uncharted monetary territory
In coronavirus the global economy has been hamstrung by a crisis which, in monetary terms, had not really recovered from the previous one.

The 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) wreckage is still clearly visible across the world in the often record low interest rates which were already in place before the virus struck. Moral hazard is never far away from financial markets who can now see the cost of keeping rates low to fight the last crisis: there’s too little ammunition left to fight the next one.

In more usual times the authorities have room to make swingeing cuts to borrowing costs in an effort to stimulate their economies. The GFC saw US rates come down from more than 5% to effectively zero, having risen back to that point from around 2% in 2004. The global economy sailed in to the coronavirus with the upper bound of the Fed Funds target rate range at a princely 1.75%, already very low by historical standards.

And the Fed has at least managed to raise interest rates from their financial crisis lows. They remained negative in Japan, and at record lows almost everywhere else, even as the virus struck.

Accorded almost magic properties in the days of Alan Greenspan, the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy had come to be doubted even by those who practice it, in the months before coronavirus hit.

‘NORMAL’ INTEREST RATE LEVELS HAD ALREADY COLLAPSED
Interest rate suppression had become a necessity in order to stop businesses and households who’d been incentivized by low rates to borrow to the hilt from going under. Sure enough they were delivered, but they left very little room for crisis fighting. As we now see. Happily the world’s fiscal authorities have seen this problem for what it is, and stepped into the monetary policy gap with huge stimulus programs of their own, most notably the US’ two-trillion-dollar whopper.

But this too comes with considerable hazard, especially if the coronavirus forces the global economy into deep freeze for a prolonged periods. National balance sheets were already groaning, the costs of economic rescue will inevitably put strained credit ratings under further duress.

What this means for trading markets is likely very simple. The bid for so-called haven assets is likely to be stronger than it was, and probably far more lasting. Think gold, the Swiss Franc, the US Dollar and the bonds of ever-rarer, rock-solid national borrowers. Riskier plays, by contrast, may well see more skittish demand profiles.

To some extent we are merely seeing a trend long in place turbocharged by the coronavirus.

Gold prices for example have been permanently at levels which would be regarded as historically quite high ever since the end of the financial crisis in 2009.