Gold Price Trend Favors Downside, Crude Oil Eyeing OPEC Report Next
Anti-fiat gold prices climbed cautiously over the past 24 hours as an improvement in market sentiment dented the anti-risk US Dollar. The S&P 500 gained 1.74% against the backdrop of rising US fiscal stimulus hopes as Trump proposed piecemeal fiscal aid after pouring cold water on hopes of a package. These expectations also likely played a role in offering growth-linked crude oil prices a slight boost despite rising US inventories.
Futures tracking benchmark stock indices on Wall Street are pointing tepidly higher in the aftermath of the vice presidential debate. That could spell an upbeat tone to come from financial markets over the remaining 24 hours. That may in turn depress the US Dollar, creating a supportive environment for XAU/USD. However, falling demand for Treasuries could push up yields, depriving the yellow metal from its full potential.
While US economic data continues to outperform relative to expectations, the margin of surprise continues to dwindle. The Citi Economic Surprise Index tracking the United States fell to its lowest since late June. That could open the door to rather lackluster initial jobless claims data and dent gold ahead. Crude oil prices may receive a boost from today’s annual OPEC World Outlook report on rising demand expectations.
The technical picture for gold still seems to favor the downside. A bearish ‘Death Cross’ was formed in late September when the near-term 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed under the medium-term 50-day one. Furthermore, the falling trendline from August seems to be maintaining the focus to the downside. Key support sits bellow as a range between 1848 and 1863.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WTI crude oil prices are sitting right on key falling resistance from the beginning of this year. This follows a bounce off support which is a narrow range between 36.15 and 37.10. The technical outlook for oil also seems to be favoring the downside given the presence of a bearish ‘Death Cross’. Pushing above August highs could overturn these downside-favoring signals.
